Search for: All records

Abstract As the greenhouse gas concentrations increase, a warmer climate is expected. However, numerous internal climate processes can modulate the primary radiative warming response of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas forcing. Here the particular internal climate process that we focus on is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), an important global-scale feature of ocean circulation that serves to transport heat and other scalars, and we address the question of how the mean strength of AMOC can modulate the transient climate response. While the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM1) have very similar equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity, our analysis suggests that a weaker AMOC contributes in part to the higher transient climate response to a rising greenhouse gas forcing seen in E3SM1 by permitting a faster warming of the upper ocean and a concomitant slower warming of the subsurface ocean. Likewise the stronger AMOC in CESM2 by permitting a slower warming of the upper ocean leads in part to a smaller transient climate response. Thus, while the mean strength of AMOC does not affect the equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity, it is likely to play an important role in determining the transient climate response on the centennial time scale. 

Ocean fronts are an important submesoscale feature, yet frontogenesis theory often neglects turbulence – even parameterized turbulence – leaving theory lacking in comparison with observations and models. A perturbation analysis is used to include the effects of eddy viscosity and diffusivity as a first-order correction to existing strain-induced inviscid, adiabatic frontogenesis theory. A modified solution is obtained by using potential vorticity and surface conditions to quantify turbulent fluxes. It is found that horizontal viscosity and diffusivity tend to be readily frontolytic – reducing frontal tendency to negative values under weakly non-conservative perturbations and opposing or reversing front sharpening, whereas vertical viscosity and diffusivity tend to only weaken frontogenesis by slowing the rate of sharpening of the front even under strong perturbations. During late frontogenesis, vertical diffusivity enhances the rate of frontogenesis, although perturbation theory may be inaccurate at this stage. Surface quasi-geostrophic theory – neglecting all injected interior potential vorticity – is able to describe the first-order correction to the along-front velocity and ageostrophic overturning circulation in most cases. Furthermore, local conditions near the front maximum are sufficient to reconstruct the modified solution of both these fields. 

Abstract Purpose of Review Assessment of the impact of ocean resolution in Earth System models on the mean state, variability, and future projections and discussion of prospects for improved parameterisations to represent the ocean mesoscale. Recent Findings The majority of centres participating in CMIP6 employ ocean components with resolutions of about 1 degree in their full Earth System models (eddy-parameterising models). In contrast, there are also models submitted to CMIP6 (both DECK and HighResMIP) that employ ocean components of approximately 1/4 degree and 1/10 degree (eddy-present and eddy-rich models). Evidence to date suggests that whether the ocean mesoscale is explicitly represented or parameterised affects not only the mean state of the ocean but also the climate variability and the future climate response, particularly in terms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Ocean. Recent developments in scale-aware parameterisations of the mesoscale are being developed and will be included in future Earth System models. Summary Although the choice of ocean resolution in Earth System models will always be limited by computational considerations, for the foreseeable future, this choice is likely to affect projections of climate variability and change as well as other aspects of the Earth System. Future Earth System models will be able to choose increased ocean resolution and/or improved parameterisation of processes to capture physical processes with greater fidelity.